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Such an attack is often the result of multiple compromised systems flooding the targeted system with traffic. Infrastructure outages also continue to be a threat with over half of operators experiencing this issue.

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This was due to cybercriminals exploiting vulnerabilities in the Memcached protocol, resulting in record breaking amplification attacks. This has become a method that is increasingly popular since it does not require malware driven botnets. Average DDoS attack size in was Mbps, a slight decrease from 1, Mbps in , enough to take most organizations completely offline. However, since Memcached appeared, average attack size has increased 37 percent from 1H to 1H In the top motivation behind DDoS attacks was criminals demonstrating attack capabilities, with gaming and criminal extortion attempts in second and third place, respectively.

The events from and the first quarter of once again demonstrated that the attackers are increasing their computing resources to perform DDoS attacks. Amplification attackers, who have tools for carrying out a DDoS attack, exploit vulnerabilities in the network and compute resources. Security vendors continue to make sure these attacks are financially unviable for the cybercriminals. Globally the total number of DDoS attacks will double to The modern ransomware attack was born from two innovations in the early part of this decade: encryption and bitcoin.

With the Mirai Botnet attack in , compromises and hacking took mainstage with exposing vulnerabilities in IoT in relation to home monitoring and devices. However, the concern is beyond the home as well. Vulnerabilities in smartphone apps can also be used to introduce malware. Vehicle-to-vehicle V2V communication and vehicle-to-everything V2X communication are being enabled with smart cities and next-generation mobile and Wi-Fi standards.

Key fob scanning, taking control over air bag systems, and anti-collision systems are all possibilities. Security will remain a key part of the IoT deployment and proliferation. Broadband speed is a crucial enabler of IP traffic. Broadband-speed improvements result in increased consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will double from to , from Table 4 shows the projected broadband speeds from to Several factors influence the fixed broadband-speed forecast, including the deployment and adoption of Fiber-to-the-home FTTH , high-speed DSL, and cable broadband adoption, as well as overall broadband penetration.

Table 4. Fixed broadband speeds in Mbps , — CAGR — Consider how long it takes to download an HD movie at these speeds: at 10 Mbps, it takes 20 minutes; at 25 Mbps, it takes 9 minutes; but at Mbps, it takes only 2 minutes. High-bandwidth speeds will be essential to support consumer cloud storage, making the download of large multimedia files as fast as a transfer from a hard drive. Table 5 shows the percentage of broadband connections that will be faster than 10 Mbps, 25 Mbps, and 50 Mbps by region.

Table 5. Broadband speed greater than 10 Mbps, — Greater Than 10 Mbps. Greater Than 25 Mbps. Greater Than 50 Mbps. A few countries also have users that currently experience greater than Mbps, paving the path for the future demands of video. Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in was 8.

The average speed will more than triple and will be Anecdotal evidence supports the idea that overall use increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased use, which can range from a few months to several years. The reverse can also be true with the burstiness associated with the adoption of tablets and smartphones, where there is a delay in experiencing the speeds that the devices can support.

Many of the trends in the resulting traffic forecast can be seen in the speed forecast, such as the high growth rates for developing countries and regions relative to more developed areas Table 6. Table 6. Projected average mobile network connection speeds in Mbps by region and country. Global speed: All handsets. Forward projections for mobile data speeds are based on third-party forecasts for the relative proportions of 2G, 3G, 3.

A crucial factor promoting the increase in mobile speeds over the forecast period is the increasing proportion of fourth-generation 4G mobile connections. Globally, Wi-Fi connection speeds originated from dual-mode mobile devices will more than double by The average Wi-Fi network connection speed North America will experience the highest Wi-Fi speeds, Wi-Fi speeds inherently depend on the quality of the broadband connection to the premises. The latest standard, IEEE Also, an important factor in the use of Wi-Fi technology is the number and availability of hotspots.

Table 7. Projected average Wi-Fi network connection speeds in Mbps by region and country. Trend 8: Mobility Wi-Fi continues to gain momentum. One of the main contributing factors to growing traffic is consumer video use. Globally, there will be nearly million public Wi-Fi hotspots by , up from million hotspots in , a fourfold increase. By , Asia Pacific will have the highest percentage of 47 percent.

Public Wi-Fi along with community hotspots are included in the forecast. Community hotspots or homespots have emerged as a potentially significant element of the public Wi-Fi landscape. In this model, subscribers allow part of the capacity of their residential gateway to be open to casual use.

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The homespots may be provided by a broadband or other provider directly or through a partner. Asia Pacific will lead in adoption of homespots. By , China will lead in total number of homespots, followed by the United States and Japan. Hotels, cafes, and restaurants will have the highest number of hotspots by globally, and the fastest growth is in healthcare facilities hospitals , where hotspots will triple over the forecast period.


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      Critical enablers of Hotspot 2. Globally, the prevalence of IEEE By , IEEE The latest It will enable dense IoT deployments. By , 9. Wi-Fi has a powerful role to play alongside other small cell technologies in delivering key use cases going forward in the 5G Era. The rapid growth of mobile data traffic has been widely recognized and reported.

      The trend toward mobility carries over into the realm of fixed networks as well, in that an increasing portion of traffic will originate from portable or mobile devices. Figure 21 shows the growth in Wi-Fi and mobile traffic in relation to traffic from wired devices. By , wired networks will account for 29 percent of IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile networks will account for 71 percent of IP traffic. In , wired networks accounted for 48 percent of IP traffic; Wi-Fi accounted for 43 percent; and mobile or cellular networks accounted for 9 percent of total global IP traffic.

      Narrowing the focus to Internet traffic and excluding managed IP traffic yields a more pronounced trend. By , wired devices will account for 21 percent of Internet traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 79 percent of Internet traffic Figure In , wired devices accounted for 35 percent of Internet traffic. Although average Internet traffic has settled into a steady growth pattern, busy hour traffic or traffic in the busiest 60 minute period of the day continues to grow more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Service providers plan network capacity according to peak rates rather than average rates.

      Between and , global busy hour Internet use will grow at a CAGR of 37 percent, compared with 30 percent for average Internet traffic Figure Video is the underlying reason for accelerated busy hour traffic growth. Because video has a higher peak-to-average ratio than data or file sharing, and because video is gaining traffic share, peak Internet traffic will grow faster than average traffic.

      The growing gap between peak and average traffic is amplified further by the changing composition of Internet video. Real-time video such as live video, ambient video, and video calling has a peak-to-average ratio that is higher than on-demand video. Changes in traffic topology are being brought about by the increasing role of Content Delivery Networks CDNs in data delivery. CDNs will carry 72 percent of total Internet traffic by Figure 24 , up from 56 percent in Although network performance is usually attributed to the speeds and latencies offered by the service provider, the delivery algorithms used by CDNs have an equal if not more significant bearing on video quality.

      Private CDNs are those built and operated by content providers for their own content, and only their content. Private CDN capacity is not available to other content providers for purchase. CDNs will carry traffic closer to the end user, but presently much CDN traffic is deposited onto regional core networks. However, metro-capacity of the service provider networks is growing faster than core-capacity and will account for a third or 33 percent of total service provider network capacity by , up from 27 percent in Figure Speed is a critical factor in Internet traffic.

      When speed increases, users stream and download greater volumes of content, and adaptive bit-rate streaming increases bit rates automatically according to available bandwidth. Service providers find that users with greater bandwidth generate more traffic. By , households with high-speed fiber connectivity will generate 23 percent more traffic than households connected by DSL or cable broadband, globally Figure To limit the volume of traffic, service providers can institute use-based tiered pricing and data caps.

      Mobile operators have increased the amount of data they offer consumers with plans in Some of these plans include data caps in excess of 25GB. Competition is fueling the increase, as operators like to keep up with their peers in offering "the most data" for marketing purposes. With mobile penetration reaching a saturation point in many countries across all regions, the strategy until was the implementation of tiered plans as a way to monetize data and effectively manage or throttle the top users of traffic. While the top 1 percent of the users continue to consume less data in comparison to five years ago, there has been a resurgence in unlimited plans.

      In parallel, fixed broadband operators in most countries offered higher broadband speed tiers in compared with Chinese operators in particular have hiked fixed broadband speeds, offering in the hundreds of megabits; one even offers 1 Gbps. In the United States, most providers are offering 1 Gbps and one operator offers 2 Gbps.

      In several countries, Netflix has a sizable percentage of the Internet video minutes and traffic. Wildcard traffic generators such as Twitch. TV, a live streaming service in which video gamers watch each other play, has established itself on many fixed networks around the world.

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      Increasingly, global service providers are making networking investments and architectural transformations to bolster the capabilities at the network edge. Based on our analysis, 33 percent of global service provider network capacity will be within a metro network by up from 27 percent in Comparatively, 24 percent of global service provider network capacity will be in regional backbones by down from 25 percent in and 43 percent of global service provider network capacity will be in cross-country backbones by down from 48 percent in By , 22 percent of global Internet traffic will come from mobile cellular networks up from 12 percent in As expected, mobile carriers from around the world are beginning to introduce trial 5G networks see 5G Availability Around the World from Lifewire.

      Many industry experts believe that large-scale 5G deployments will begin to take shape in , when mobile spectrum, standards, profitable business plans and other operational issues are more fully fleshed out. Smartphones will represent 44 percent of global IP traffic by up from 18 percent in This trend demonstrates the effect that smartphones have on how consumers and businesses users access and use the Internet and IP networks. IoT connections will represent more than half While IoT includes a wide variety of low-bandwidth to high-bandwidth applications from smart meters to smart cars , the segment will represent more than 6 percent of global IP traffic by up from just over 3 percent in Gaming on demand and streaming gaming platforms have been in development for several years, with many newly released in the last couple of years.

      With cloud gaming, game graphics are produced on a remote server and transmitted over the network to the gamer. As cloud gaming becomes popular, gaming could become one of the largest Internet traffic categories. Traffic associated with virtual and augmented reality applications is poised to grow fold over the next five years 65 percent CAGR. This growth stems mainly from the download of large virtual reality content files and applications, but a significant wild card is the potential adoption of virtual reality streaming, which could raise our prediction of high-growth even higher.

      With a steady flow of video traffic from each camera, video surveillance is already having an effect on overall Internet traffic. It accounts for 2 percent of Internet video traffic today and will grow 7-fold to reach 3 percent by If such devices become mass market in the next five years, we could see video cameras generating a significantly higher volume of traffic, since Internet-enabled cameras can produce up to GB per camera per month for full HD-resolution monitoring of high-activity areas.

      The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology has been developed based on a combination of analyst projections, in-house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection. The adoption, usage, and bit-rate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers.

      Following is the methodology through each step for a single application category in this case, Internet video where the estimation process is illustrated. The forecast for Internet video begins with estimations of the number of consumer fixed Internet users. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment consumer versus business and network mobile versus fixed. The number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment.

      The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users. After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated.

      It was assumed that all Internet video users view short-form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America. Middle East and Africa. North America. Western Europe. The changing mix of devices and connections and growth in multidevice ownership affects traffic and can be seen in the changing device contribution to total IP traffic. At the end of , 59 percent of IP traffic and 51 percent of Internet traffic originated from non-PC devices.

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      As in the case of mobile networks, video devices can have a multiplier effect on traffic. An Internet-enabled HD television that draws 2 hours of content per day from the Internet would generate as much Internet traffic as an entire household today. With the growth of video viewing on smartphones and tablets, traffic from these devices is growing as a percentage of total Internet traffic. Share of PCs to total global Internet traffic will decline to 19 percent by , down from 49 percent in Smartphones will account for 50 percent of total global Internet traffic by , up from 23 percent in Figure 5.

      The video effect of the devices on the traffic is more pronounced because of the introduction of Ultra-High- Definition UHD , or 4K, video streaming. This technology has such an effect because the bit rate for 4K video at about 15 to 18 Mbps is more than double the HD video bit rate and nine times more than Standard-Definition SD video bit rate. We estimate that by , nearly two-thirds 62 percent of the installed flat-panel TV sets will be UHD, up from 23 percent in Figure 6. The transition from an IPv4 environment to an IPv6 environment is making excellent progress, with increases in IPv6 device capabilities, content enablement, and operators implementing IPv6 in their networks.

      These developments are particularly important because Asia, Europe, North America, and Latin America have already exhausted their IPv4 allotments, and Africa is expected to exhaust its allotment by Table 3. IPv4 address exhaustion dates. Regional Internet Registries. Exhaustion Date.

      April 15, actual. September 14, actual. June 10, actual. September 24, actual. May 23, projected. Building on the Cisco VNI IPv6-capable devices analysis, the forecast estimates that globally there will be nearly In terms of percentages, 64 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable by , up from 32 percent in Figure 8. This estimate is based on the capability of the device and the network connection to support IPv6 and is not a projection of active IPv6 connections.

      Mobile-device IPv6 capability is assessed based on OS support of IPv6 and estimations of the types of mobile network infrastructure to which the device can connect 3. Fixed-device IPv6 capability is assessed based on device support of IPv6 and an estimation of the capability of the residential Customer Premises Equipment CPE or business routers to support IPv6, depending on the device end-user segment. Globally, fixed and mobile network operators are broadly deploying the IPv6 protocol and supporting significant volumes of IPv6 traffic as a percentage of their overall IP traffic.

      Amid these industry developments, the Cisco VNI forecast is undertaking an effort to estimate the potential IPv6 network traffic that could be generated if a percentage of IPv6-capable devices become actively connected to an IPv6 network, given the estimated global average for monthly traffic per device type.

      This initial estimation of potential IPv6 traffic is based on the assumptions that IPv6 device capability, IPv6 content enablement, and IPv6 network deployment will keep pace with current trends and may even accelerate during the forecast period. Considering the interdependence of these variables, forecast assumptions could be subject to refinement as our analysis continues. Content providers are also moving to increase the IPv6 enablement of their sites and services. There can be, however, variation depending on the popularity of websites across regions and countries.

      In addition, specific country initiatives and content-provider deployments have positively affected local IPv6 content reachability. Overall, the likelihood that a significant portion of Internet traffic will be generated over IPv6 networks holds considerable opportunity for network operators, content providers, and end users seeking to gain the scalability and performance benefits of IPv6 and enable the Internet of Things IoT.

      Internet of Things IoT is no longer a phenomenon, but it has become a prevalent system in which people, processes, data, and things connect to the Internet and each other. Globally, M2M connections will grow 2. There will be 1. Connected home applications, such as home automation, home security and video surveillance, connected white goods, and tracking applications, will represent 48 percent, or nearly half, of the total M2M connections by , showing the pervasiveness of M2M in our lives Figure Connected car, with applications such as fleet management, in-vehicle entertainment and Internet access, roadside assistance, vehicle diagnostics, navigation, and autonomous driving, will be the fastest-growing industry segment, at a 28 percent CAGR.

      Connected cities applications will have the second-fastest growth, at an 26 percent CAGR each. Although the number of connections is growing 2. The amount of traffic is growing faster than the number of connections because of the increase of deployment of video applications on M2M connections and the increased use of applications, such as telemedicine and smart car navigation systems, which require greater bandwidth and lower latency.

      The sum of all forms of IP video, which includes Internet video, IP VoD, video files exchanged through file sharing, video-streamed gaming, and video conferencing, will continue to be in the range of 80 to 90 percent of total IP traffic. Globally, IP video traffic will account for 82 percent of traffic by Figure The implications of video growth are difficult to overstate. With video growth, Internet traffic is evolving from a relatively steady stream of traffic characteristic of Peer-to-Peer [P2P] traffic to a more dynamic traffic pattern.

      In the past few years, service providers have observed a pronounced increase in traffic associated with gaming downloads. Newer consoles such as the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 have sufficient onboard storage to enable gamers to download new games rather than buy them on disc. These graphically intense games are large files, and gaming traffic will reach 4 percent of all IP traffic by Furthermore, these downloads tend to occur during peak usage periods, with gaming downloads reaching up to 8 percent of busy hour traffic.

      We expect the growth of gaming traffic to continue, and gaming is one of the forms of traffic that will limit the likelihood that video traffic will exceed the projected 82 percent by There are shifts within Internet video traffic itself as well Figure In particular, live Internet video has the potential to drive large amounts of traffic as it replaces traditional broadcast viewing hours.

      Live video already accounts for 5 percent of Internet video traffic and will grow fold to reach 17 percent by Also, of note is the growth of video surveillance traffic dropcams. This traffic is of a very different nature than live or on-demand streaming and represents a steady stream of upstream video camera traffic, uploaded continuously from homes and small businesses to the cloud.

      With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of Internet video do not have a large upstream component. As a result, traffic is not becoming more symmetric, a situation that many expected when user-generated content first became popular. The emergence of subscribers as content producers is an extremely important social, economic, and cultural phenomenon, but subscribers still consume far more video than they produce.

      Upstream traffic has been slightly declining as a percentage for several years. It appears likely that residential Internet traffic will remain asymmetric for the next few years. However, numerous scenarios could result in a move toward increased symmetry; for example:. There has been a strong case for P2P as a low-cost Content-Delivery System CDS for many years, yet most content providers and distributors have opted for direct distribution, with the exception of applications such as PPStream and PPLive in China, which offer live video streaming through P2P and have had great success.

      If content providers in other regions follow suit, traffic could rapidly become highly symmetric. PC-to-PC video calling is gaining momentum, and the nascent mobile video calling market appears to have promise. If high-end video calling becomes popular, traffic could move toward greater symmetry. Generally, if service providers provide ample upstream bandwidth, applications that use upstream capacity will begin to appear.

      We are seeing a trend in which the growth in digital television service that denotes television viewing across all digital platforms cable, IPTV, satellite, etc. Also, in emerging regions mobile video growth rates are even higher because these regions are bypassing fixed connectivity.

      This trend again shows that there is increasingly less reliance on STBs managed by service providers for Internet access in general and for video specifically Figure A cord-cutting household generated GB per month in , compared to 82 GB per month for an average household. This difference occurs because linear television generates much less traffic one stream of video shared across numerous linear-TV households than Internet video, which is unicast to each Internet video device.

      Users expect their online experience to be always available and always secure—and their personal and business assets to be safe. The last several years have been easily the most eventful period from a security threat perspective, with many serious data breaches that have been discussed widely in the media.

      Given the scope of the monetary and brand damage associated with data breaches, cybersecurity is treated as a business risk rather than merely an IT issue. Advances in technology is the main driver for economic growth but has also led to a higher incidence of cyberattacks. The leading trends such as ecommerce, mobile payments, cloud computing, Big Data and analytics, IoT, AI, machine learning, and social media, all increase cyber risk for users and businesses.

      Compounding the problem, the nature of the threats is becoming more diverse. The list includes Distributed Denial-of-Service DDoS , ransomware, Advanced Persistent Threats APTs , viruses, worms, malware, spyware, botnets, spam, spoofing, phishing, hacktivism and potential state-sanctioned cyberwarfare.

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      There were a total of breaches with a total of nearly The number of records exposed per data breach averaged 39, year-to-date in , according to Identity Theft Resource Center, with the highest number of records exposed in the business category. There are many methods to breaching, according to the Verizon data breach investigations report. A Distributed-Denial-of-Service DDoS attack occurs when multiple systems flood the bandwidth or resources of a targeted system, usually one or more web servers. Such an attack is often the result of multiple compromised systems flooding the targeted system with traffic.

      Infrastructure outages also continue to be a threat with over half of operators experiencing this issue. This was due to cybercriminals exploiting vulnerabilities in the Memcached protocol, resulting in record breaking amplification attacks. This has become a method that is increasingly popular since it does not require malware driven botnets. Average DDoS attack size in was Mbps, a slight decrease from 1, Mbps in , enough to take most organizations completely offline. However, since Memcached appeared, average attack size has increased 37 percent from 1H to 1H In the top motivation behind DDoS attacks was criminals demonstrating attack capabilities, with gaming and criminal extortion attempts in second and third place, respectively.

      The events from and the first quarter of once again demonstrated that the attackers are increasing their computing resources to perform DDoS attacks. Amplification attackers, who have tools for carrying out a DDoS attack, exploit vulnerabilities in the network and compute resources. Security vendors continue to make sure these attacks are financially unviable for the cybercriminals. Globally the total number of DDoS attacks will double to The modern ransomware attack was born from two innovations in the early part of this decade: encryption and bitcoin.

      With the Mirai Botnet attack in , compromises and hacking took mainstage with exposing vulnerabilities in IoT in relation to home monitoring and devices. However, the concern is beyond the home as well. Vulnerabilities in smartphone apps can also be used to introduce malware.

      Vehicle-to-vehicle V2V communication and vehicle-to-everything V2X communication are being enabled with smart cities and next-generation mobile and Wi-Fi standards. Key fob scanning, taking control over air bag systems, and anti-collision systems are all possibilities.

      Security will remain a key part of the IoT deployment and proliferation. Broadband speed is a crucial enabler of IP traffic. Broadband-speed improvements result in increased consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will double from to , from Table 4 shows the projected broadband speeds from to Several factors influence the fixed broadband-speed forecast, including the deployment and adoption of Fiber-to-the-home FTTH , high-speed DSL, and cable broadband adoption, as well as overall broadband penetration.

      Table 4. Fixed broadband speeds in Mbps , — CAGR — Consider how long it takes to download an HD movie at these speeds: at 10 Mbps, it takes 20 minutes; at 25 Mbps, it takes 9 minutes; but at Mbps, it takes only 2 minutes. High-bandwidth speeds will be essential to support consumer cloud storage, making the download of large multimedia files as fast as a transfer from a hard drive.

      Table 5 shows the percentage of broadband connections that will be faster than 10 Mbps, 25 Mbps, and 50 Mbps by region. Table 5. Broadband speed greater than 10 Mbps, — Greater Than 10 Mbps. Greater Than 25 Mbps. Greater Than 50 Mbps. A few countries also have users that currently experience greater than Mbps, paving the path for the future demands of video.

      Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in was 8. The average speed will more than triple and will be Anecdotal evidence supports the idea that overall use increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased use, which can range from a few months to several years. The reverse can also be true with the burstiness associated with the adoption of tablets and smartphones, where there is a delay in experiencing the speeds that the devices can support.

      Many of the trends in the resulting traffic forecast can be seen in the speed forecast, such as the high growth rates for developing countries and regions relative to more developed areas Table 6. Table 6. Projected average mobile network connection speeds in Mbps by region and country.

      Global speed: All handsets. Forward projections for mobile data speeds are based on third-party forecasts for the relative proportions of 2G, 3G, 3. A crucial factor promoting the increase in mobile speeds over the forecast period is the increasing proportion of fourth-generation 4G mobile connections. Globally, Wi-Fi connection speeds originated from dual-mode mobile devices will more than double by The average Wi-Fi network connection speed North America will experience the highest Wi-Fi speeds, Wi-Fi speeds inherently depend on the quality of the broadband connection to the premises.

      The latest standard, IEEE Also, an important factor in the use of Wi-Fi technology is the number and availability of hotspots. Table 7. Projected average Wi-Fi network connection speeds in Mbps by region and country. Trend 8: Mobility Wi-Fi continues to gain momentum.